Saturday, 21 April 2007

Niall Ferguson on the Difficulties of Causality

Niall Ferguson - We can see the causes of Cho's rampage now, so why not before?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/04/22/do2201.xml

"Having been completely caught out by some random event, we human beings are wonderfully good at retrospectively predicting it."

Taleb's 'The Black Swan' and the Virginia massacre. Argues that our retrospective models of reality never fit the real thing. Interesting if not terribly convincing.

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